Has the Spring of Humanoid Robots Truly Arrived?
Overseas, artificial intelligence robot startups such as Figure AI, backed by OpenAI, Microsoft, NVIDIA, and Amazon founder Bezos, have announced the release of the second-generation humanoid robot Figure 02, which they claim to be the "most advanced AI hardware on Earth." This marks a solid step towards their goal of selling mass-produced humanoid robots to industrial users.
Domestically, humanoid robots are increasingly entering factories for practical training, and the pace of mass production is significantly accelerating. UBTECH's Walker S has made its way into the intelligent factories of BYD, NIO, and Dongfeng Liuzhou; while Zhiyuan Robot's Expedition A1 has also completed tasks such as chassis assembly, wiring organization, and exterior quality inspection in automotive factories.
Undoubtedly, humanoid robots are getting closer to full commercialization. However, the changing competitive landscape, high mass production costs, and rapidly evolving intelligent technologies are a series of market changes that UBTECH cannot afford to ignore, both as immediate concerns and long-term considerations.
Good news is coming in succession, and full commercialization is near.
After years of development, the market penetration rate of robots has significantly increased, with扫地机器人 and logistics robots being clear examples of their widespread integration into our lives. However, the large-scale commercialization of humanoid robots still faces severe challenges, mainly due to the constraints of core issues such as safety, reliability, and high costs.
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UBTECH's humanoid robot product, Walker S, is actively overcoming these obstacles and steadily moving towards the goal of full commercialization by continuously expanding its cooperation fields and successfully signing cooperation agreements with multiple enterprises.
In 2024, the good news of UBTECH's humanoid robots entering factories for on-site "training" comes one after another. First, the humanoid robot Walker S entered the final assembly workshop of NIO's second advanced manufacturing base for an "internship"; second, UBTECH signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Dongfeng Liuzhou on the application of humanoid robots; third, UBTECH reached a cooperation with Beijing and FAW-Volkswagen to jointly explore the in-depth application of humanoid robots in industrial scenarios.
For UBTECH, the entry of humanoid robots into factory practical training is an important test of technological maturity and market adaptability. It helps to further optimize the performance of the robots, enhance their stability and efficiency in actual working scenarios, and also indicates the accelerated progress of UBTECH in the commercialization process of humanoid robots.For the industry, the entry of humanoid robots into factory training is a significant step for humanoid robots to move from the laboratory to practical application. As humanoid robots are widely applied in factories, their performance will be further verified and optimized, thereby promoting the rapid development of the entire industry.
Humanoid robots entering internships in multiple automobile factories bring them closer to full commercialization, but UBTECH still faces many challenges.
Immediate concerns: declining stock prices and slowing revenue growth
It is well known that stock price fluctuations to some extent reflect the market's doubts and concerns about the company's future development prospects. UBTECH's troubles are akin to a roller coaster ride in stock prices.
In December last year, UBTECH was listed on the Hong Kong stock market at 90 Hong Kong dollars per share, with initially modest market performance; from early March this year, the stock price climbed significantly, reaching a peak of 328 Hong Kong dollars per share, with a market value breaking through ten billion; since July, the stock price has plummeted sharply; in August, the stock price continued to fall consecutively, with the latest market value dropping to about 37.3 billion Hong Kong dollars.
In addition to the dramatic fluctuations in stock market prices drawing attention, the slowdown in UBTECH's revenue growth rate is also a cause for concern.
Financial report data shows that from 2020 to 2023, UBTECH's revenue was 740 million yuan, 817 million yuan, 1.008 billion yuan, and 1.056 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 10.40%, 23.38%, and 4.45% in the past three years, showing a significant slowdown. At the same time, the gross margin is also decreasing, from 39.4% in 2022 to 31.5%.
The decline in UBTECH's revenue growth and gross profit is mainly due to the decrease in the proportion of income from the main business of educational intelligent robot products and services, which is also a direct consequence of the increasingly fierce market competition.
On one hand, after the rush to purchase educational hardware during the three years of the pandemic, the market may have already consumed some of the demand for the next one to two years in advance, indicating that the field of educational hardware products will face a period of fluctuation and adjustment. On the other hand, as technology advances and consumer demands diversify, the competitive landscape of educational robots is also constantly evolving, and UBTECH faces the risk of market share erosion.
It was thought that with the main business as a solid backing, UBTECH could proceed more calmly on the path of developing humanoid robots. However, even though this main business provides important revenue support, this foundation is not unassailable, and therefore it does not ensure that UBTECH can rest easy from now on.Far-reaching Concerns: Technology Priority, High Costs
Ubtech, which is making great strides in the field of humanoid robots, faces not only immediate worries but also deeper long-term concerns, namely the industry-wide problem of high mass production costs.
According to Ubtech's prospectus data, the company has made significant investments in research and development. From 2020 to 2022 and the first half of 2023, Ubtech's R&D expenditures were 429 million yuan, 517 million yuan, 428 million yuan, and 224 million yuan, respectively, accounting for 57.9%, 63.3%, 42.5%, and 85.9% of its total revenue for the respective periods.
Correspondingly, Ubtech holds the world's leading number of valid patents for humanoid robots. By the end of 2023, Ubtech's full-stack technology encompassed over 2,100 patents related to robotics and artificial intelligence, with more than 400 being overseas patents, and the proportion of invention patents exceeding 50%.
It is understandable that as a pioneer in the field of humanoid robots, Ubtech needs to continuously invest substantial resources in technology research and development and product innovation to maintain its technological leadership and the market competitiveness of its products. However, this high-intensity R&D investment significantly increases its cost burden.
Ubtech may have seen this issue early on, but the dilemma is currently difficult to resolve.
Firstly, the high manufacturing cost of humanoid robots is a widespread problem. Compared to other types of robots, humanoid robots require more high-precision, high-quality components and more complex manufacturing processes, which directly lead to increased manufacturing costs, often running into hundreds of thousands of yuan.
Secondly, the iteration and upgrade of humanoid robots require continuous investment of time and funds. The technology of humanoid robots is still in its developmental stage, with many key technologies not yet mature. It requires a significant amount of time and funds for technology research and development, as well as continuous iteration to enhance the performance and stability of the robots.
Thirdly, the market demand for humanoid robots is relatively small and has not yet formed a sufficient market scale. This situation limits the ability of robot companies to effectively reduce unit production costs by expanding production scale. It is reported that the Walker series sold only 1 unit in 2021, 8 units in 2022, and 1 unit in the first half of 2023, with only ten units sold in two and a half years.
The commercialization process of humanoid robots is full of challenges, and this predicament is not limited to Ubtech but is a common problem faced by the entire industry. For the foreseeable future, the dilemma of high R&D costs and the difficulty of mass production will continue to plague Ubtech.A Sustainable Growth Path
Despite facing challenges both domestically and internationally, the humanoid robot industry is burgeoning, and UBTECH Robotics has a significant opportunity to carve out a sustainable growth path.
Externally, the humanoid robot industry is in a phase of rapid development, which presents vast market potential and growth space for UBTECH Robotics. As technology matures and costs decrease, the application prospects for humanoid robots in various fields such as education, entertainment, service, and healthcare are becoming increasingly broad. Goldman Sachs, an international investment bank, predicts that by 2035, the humanoid robot market could reach $154 billion, equivalent to approximately 1.1037 trillion yuan.
Internally, as one of the leading enterprises in the humanoid robot industry, UBTECH Robotics possesses advantages and experience in multiple aspects including product development, branding, and scenarios. Firstly, UBTECH Robotics has accumulated rich experience in technology research and development, product design, and manufacturing, forming a strong technological barrier and brand influence. Secondly, the company has successful robot application cases in various fields such as education and logistics, providing strong support for further market expansion. Additionally, UBTECH Robotics actively collaborates with well-known domestic and international enterprises, universities, and research institutions to jointly promote innovation and development in humanoid robot technology.
In summary, given the current favorable development trend of the humanoid robot industry, UBTECH Robotics should deeply explore and efficiently utilize its unique core advantages, keenly seize the valuable opportunities emerging in the market, and pave a stable and sustainable growth path. Looking ahead, the day when humanoid robots "officially" become mainstream will mark a new starting point for UBTECH Robotics to achieve leapfrog development.